US Presidential Election 2016 Forecasts
The 2016 United States Presidential Election has attracted much attention from around the world, largely due to the Republican Candidate, Donald Trump’s controversial remarks, such as his statements against Hispanics, women, and China, etc. What makes this election even more special is that both candidates are nonconventional in their own ways – Hilary Clinton is the first female major party candidate and Donald Trump has held no political office.
Based in the US, I have been exposed to daily bombardments of election news by the mainstream media, as well as social media posts from my American and non-American friends. Eventually, curiosity got the better of me, and as a Math major, I naturally looked towards the numerical analysis of the election – namely, polls or forecast. I looked at polls by FiveThirtyEight, New York Time’s The Upshot, RealClearPolitics‘, as well as other polls by various universities. I have seen how Clinton’s chance grew from 70% to 90% and then drop to 65%. Most forecasts are based on surveys with both quality and questionable screening criteria but some are based on garbage analysis.
Here’re 3 things I learnt from reading various polls:
1. Many polls are phone polls and could be biased.
Many pollsters use a random dialer to contact people by randomly dialing someone, most likely on their landlines. Such method of polling could exclude groups of people who don’t often have landlines, and could preclude people who answer the polling calls from revealing their true support for presidential candidate.
2. Voter turnout is key to winning US Presidential Elections.
The average voter turnout for US Presidential Elections over the recent years is about 60%. This means that about 40% of eligible voters do not vote at all and about 60% of the population decides on the country’s future. Such a number is extremely shocking depending how the US President will choose Supreme Court justice(s), who will interpret constitutional laws that will determine the fabric of US society, negotiate trade deals, and formulate immigration policies.
Those three functions of the President should urge people to go out to vote. In Singapore, the voter turnout is more than 90% – as majority of Singaporeans understand the importance of politics’ impact on a nation’s future. Imagine what electing a Hitler-like demagogue will do to your country.
3. US Election resembles a cash game.
A lot of money is needed to win an election. Obama’s election campaign budget was $736.5 million and $759.8 million in the 2012 and 2008 elections respectively. His opponents spent $483 million and $239.6 million respectively. These numbers were provided by Forbes. The trend in the last decade or so is that election campaign budgets combined exceeded $1 billion in general. Of course, not all money raised is spent but the magnitude of the money raised gives us a good idea of how much is spent on ads and personnels to acquire votes.
The is also a good reason why some are extremely concerned and turned off by how US elections become a game of who can raise and spend the most money on ads and staffers. Of course, the amount of money raised may be correlated to the qualities of the candidate so the candidate who wins due to a large war chest may also be the better candidate. This argument may not be so virtuous given the fact that the elected President may be beholden to the big donors.
My Forecast
While I cannot vote, to do justice to the post title, I will express my support for a candidate as well. Hillary seems to be the more reasonable of the two. I have faith in the common sense logic of the majority of Americans that I have witnessed firsthand across the United States.
Nevertheless, elections are more often influenced by emotions rather than logic. Donald Trump winning the election is a real possibility too since he has been invoking extreme emotions from his supporters, especially the non-college white working class.
